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ATRI’s latest Crash Predictor Model corroborates strong role of driver behaviors to future truck crashes

From ATRI.

The American Transportation Research Institute today released the 2022 update to its well-known Predicting Truck Crash Involvement research. ATRI’s Crash Predictor research, originally published in 2005 with updates in 2011 and 2018, designed and tested a predictive model that identified statistically significant relationships between truck driver safety behaviors and future crash probability. The new 2022 report uses the same statistical methods, and is based on more than 580,000 individual truck driver records.

ATRI’s analysis identified more than 25 different violations and convictions that increased the likelihood of future crashes, five of which increased future crash likelihood by over 100 percent. Simply having a previous crash increased a truck driver’s probability of having a future crash by 113 percent, 28.4 percent higher than previous ATRI Crash Predictor reports.

Five behaviors have consistently been strong indicators of future crash involvement across three or more reports, including a Reckless Driving violation, Failure to Use / Improper Signal conviction, a prior crash, Failure to Yield Right-of-Way violation, and an Improper or Erratic Lane Changes conviction.

See the complete release, and access the full report from ATRI online.