Economist says trucking short 80,000 drivers

From Commercial Carrier Journal.

The trucking industry is short at least a record-high 80,000 drivers, according to American Trucking Associations’ Chief Economist Bob Costello, due in large part to accelerated retirements in the wake of the pandemic and trucking schools that were shuttered or limited in their ability to infuse new CDL drivers into the workforce.

Costello’s updated figure represents a significant upward adjustment from his previous estimation of less than 60,000. Costello noted the driver shortage improved in 2019 thanks mostly to an infusion of new talent and a stable freight environment, but industry-wide volatility brought on by the pandemic has boosted headcount needs by more than 30%.

The current estimation and its upward movement is likely no surprise as the White House struggles with ideas to reconcile the amount of goods that need to be moved with the lack of capacity to move it.

“This is sort of a warning to the entire supply chain,” Costello said, noting that if current trends hold, trucking could be short 160,000 drivers by 2030. “I really do think the supply chain problems of today are a glimpse into our future if we do not fix this.”

While it’s easy to lay blame on the pandemic, Costello said all transportation players – from shipper to carrier to receiver – play a role in the labor problem, and that the current supply chain woes only pile on underlying industry issues like elevated driver age and lack of diversity in the driver force.
“We have a demographics problem,” Costello said. “We have a high average age [and] you have to be at least 21 years old to drive interstate freight, but most people don’t wait around.”

Costello said most new drivers enter the industry at around 35 years old, and for LTL and private fleets that number balloons to over 50 years old.

“When you’re going to have life out on the road, I don’t know if I want to do it at 35 (years old),” Costello said, harkening to the fact that many would-be truck drivers have already sought another career path by the time they are of age to drive interstate. In fact, Costello suggested that trucking’s age model is backwards; that, ideally, drivers should learn to drive OTR first before driving intrastate, which includes urban settings that can be more challenging. Costello noted he and ATA support the DRIVE Safe Act, which could infuse the industry with up to 3,000 drivers between the ages of 18 and 20 who would be trained and mentored for interstate driving.

See the complete article from Commercial Carrier Journal online.